Sadie Keljikian, Express Trade Capital
President Trump’s promised trade war has begun and it doesn’t look like there will be any winners.
Earlier this year, Trump imposed a series of new import tariffs on goods made outside the US, particularly those made in China. The move has been controversial, largely because each affected country’s respective economy relies heavily on exports. As many economists predicted, however, China, India, the EU and Russia have all fired back.
The president signed the so-called “Trump Tariffs” in March in an attempt to combat “unfair trade practices“ in China and other manufacturing hubs. The newly established tariffs targeted $34 billion in Chinese-produced goods, as well as numerous steel and aluminum goods manufactured abroad.
Shortly after news of the proclamations broke, the EU pledged to place new tariffs on American-made goods in retaliation. Soon after, China announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on US exports, including motor vehicles, soy beans and lobster, which also total at $34 billion in value. Russia followed suit last week and began introducing its own tariffs on US goods, including mining and road building equipment as well as oil/gas industry products. India joined in last week as well, notifying the World Trade Organization that it would raise tariffs on 30 US products including almonds, seafood and chocolate.
Experts continue to debate the precise effects that the trade war will have, but many agree that US traders will struggle to maintain financial stability and accessibility to everyday consumer goods. Although the US is economically stronger than any of the other involved countries, we lack the infrastructure and workforce to supplement the manufacturing resources on which we’ve become dependent in recent decades.
The trade war also drew controversy within the White House and among the Republican party. Several party leaders including House speaker Paul Ryan and former White House economic advisor Gary D. Cohn lobbied against the trade plan. Cohn even resigned shortly after the plan was set in motion, though it is unclear whether he left specifically due to the trade war.
As of now, it is still unclear what the lasting effects of this trade war will be, but sources warn that US consumers and exporters will suffer the most. It may seem counterintuitive, but a combination of the price increases on goods that we continue to import to meet demand and the devastating effect that retaliatory tariffs will likely have on US farmers and manufacturers will probably have a far more detrimental effect than most activity in the ongoing struggle.
Needless to say, it’s difficult to predict precise outcomes this early in the process, but given the buying and manufacturing powers at hand, the international trade industry may change dramatically.
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